Thursday, 25 October 2012

Goodwill has dried up at Arsenal, just like the trophies - The Guardian (blog)

There was a time when the pubs on Holloway Road would hum with pride at Arsenal's self-sustaining model and the impressive trick they pulled in moving to a state-of-the-art stadium while continuing to compete on the pitch. Not for them the arriviste tendencies of Chelsea or Manchester City; they would succeed "the Arsenal way".

But that consensus has been shattered in recent years, with the takeover by the largely invisible US sports mogul, Stan Kroenke – who paid hundreds of millions of pounds to enrich Arsenal's "custodian" owners and take control in 2011 – and an ongoing trophy drought leading to a splintering of fan opinion.

All sorts of old certainties are being challenged, on and off the pitch. Despite the plaudits for the new assistant coach, Steve Bould, earlier this season, Wednesday night's Champions League defeat marked the longest run without a clean sheet since 2004-05 at a club once famed for its defensive solidity.

And the self-sustaining ethos that looked like a model of how to run a football club has given way to suspicions over what ticket income is being used for, questions over why money in the bank is lying unspent and concern over the long-term intentions of the US owner.

Ivan Gazidis, Arsenal's well-remunerated and highly regarded chief executive, has always talked a good game and continued to do so at Thursday's fractious annual meeting.

He has argued persuasively that renewal or replacement in 2014 of deals signed with Nike and Emirates to underwrite the move to the Emirates Stadium will turbocharge commercial revenues in the same way that matchday takings were boosted by the new ground.

That major revenue boost, runs the theory, will dovetail with the introduction of Uefa and Premier League regulations that will force clubs to live within their means, to leave Arsenal in a pre-eminent position. That is why the club has not only been a vocal supporter of Uefa's Financial Fair Play plan, which came into force last season, but also of discussions at Premier League level to introduce cost controls.

Revenues should top £300m by 2014-15, thanks to the Premier League's new £3bn TV deal and the renegotiation of those commercial contracts, putting Arsenal among the top five earners in the world behind Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Bayern Munich. Gazidis has also long preached that doing things "the Arsenal way" will help the club's commercial prospects, burnishing the brand as it seeks to compete globally.

Arsenal's ability to compete has been squeezed in the short term by the move and the arrival of free spending benefactors at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad Stadium. The football side of the business runs at a loss, before player trading is taken into account. Arguably, Arsène Wenger has helped paper over the cracks by maintaining a remarkably consistent level of performance.

The latest accounts, published earlier this month, show a pre-tax loss of £31m on football operations because revenues have not kept pace with wage inflation. The gap has been plugged by player sales and continued upside from the property deal that helped fund the stadium move. As the last of the property receipts roll in, the intention is that the hole will be more than filled by the new commercial deals.

The promise of jam tomorrow is no longer enough for Arsenal fans paying the highest ticket prices in the country and stung by the loss of a string of marquee names. Yet even before the promised land of FFP is reached, the Arsenal Supporters' Trust estimates the club has around £70m sitting in the bank that has not been spent.

They fear Kroenke has broken his contract with Arsenal fans. His invisibility has extended to a failure to meet them as promised in his offer document and concerns about the future of the Fanshare scheme once held up as a model for fan engagement.

Moreover, they fear that as long as the upward curve of income continues, Kroenke will measure success in financial terms, content to sit back and allow his asset to appreciate in value.

Worse, he could look to take money out in the form of dividends. "It would be a bitter pill to swallow if we were told to buy into self-sufficiency only to wake up one day and find our money had been taken out of the club," said a spokesman.

Alisher Usmanov, the 29% shareholder without a seat on the board, continues to lurk in the background, having made his position clear in a devastating critique that coincided with the sale of Robin van Persie to Manchester United in the summer.

Whatever the future holds on the pitch, and much may depend on the effectiveness of FFP, the club has used up whatever goodwill it once had and must now show disgruntled fans that the Emirates still represents the promised land.

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