Recent figures show there has been a 50% fall in British and EU applications to London Metropolitan University since the university fell foul of the UK Border Agency (UKBA) rules. While London Met is clearly suffering as a result, we should also consider whether the controversy has damaged the reputation of UK higher education as a whole.
The sector was already under intense scrutiny since the introduction of tighter student visa restrictions and since UKBA took a hard line with London Met, some have argued that this demonstrated a commitment to maintaining the high standards of British universities. The Canadian immigration minister Jason Kenney certainly appears to subscribe to this view, recently being quoted as saying: "I read the London Met controversy as sending a strong message that the UK is going to maintain the integrity of its post-secondary brand to international students".
But while the intent behind UKBA's decision can be understood, its implementation cannot. From the outset, it is hard to imagine a way in which the international students at the university could have suffered more. The fact that less than a month before the start of a new academic year in a foreign country they were told to find a different university, shows an apparent total disregard for their welfare.
While it would be neat to argue that international students have been poorly treated throughout the whole process at London Met, and therefore the global reputation of UK higher education will have also suffered, the facts don't quite back this theory up at the moment.
A quantifiable way of judging the reputation of the sector is through the number of applications from abroad. In this respect, early figures released by UCAS in October actually show an increase on last year in applicants from overseas. EU applications are up 1.8%, while non-EU applicants have increased by a considerable 5.1%, despite the tighter restrictions on visas.
What's more, universities themselves believe that this trend is set to continue in the foreseeable future, with a recent HEFCE report projecting a 37% increase in income from non-EU students over the next three years. This certainly does not project an image of a sector overly concerned by the idea of faltering global reputation.
Purely anecdotal evidence we have gained through interactions with dozens of prospective students every week also appears to negate the impact of the London Met case. While it has been front page news here, the average prospective student abroad appears not to be overly worried or even know too much about the whole controversy. Yet the changes to the study visas and post-study work visas are an overwhelming concern for almost every single prospective student we speak to.
However, despite these apparently positive figures, there are a number of caveats. First of all, the UCAS numbers are early statistics based purely on applications for Oxbridge and medicine courses, with all due respect the opposite end of the spectrum to London Met, a university regularly placed towards the bottom of rankings tables. It is understandable that overseas students applying to the country's top universities and courses will be largely unconcerned by the troubles facing students at such a university.
Similarly, the overwhelmingly positive projections from HEFCE are negated by the fact that, in their words, "these forecasts were prepared before the UKBA decision to revoke London Metropolitan University's licence was announced". Indeed, despite their own projections, they admit the sector faces a major risk from "reputational damage".
So though there is currently little evidence to back the claim that the London Met controversy has damaged the reputation of UK higher education, the sector finds itself at the edge of a slippery slope. At times over the last two years, it has seemed as though higher education in Britain has been under attack from all sides. As a single case, the treatment of the international students at London Met may not have too much of a lasting negative impact, but as part of an accumulation of policies, the long term effects may be huge.
The danger lies in the very real possibility that the way London Met has been dealt with could set a precedent for future cases. Alongside tighter visa restrictions for international students, increased fees for EU students and university budget cuts, the cumulative affect on the global reputation of UK higher education could quickly spiral out of control.
It has taken decades to build our reputation, but that good work could be undone all too quickly. There seems to be a complacency that international students will always fight to study in the UK, but the London Met case is starting to look indicative of a growing lack of concern for the welfare of students coming to study here.
Andy Burrows is online editor of Foreign Students, a website for international students in the UK – follow it on Twitter @foreignstudents
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