Traditional British joys such as leaking felt roofs and muddy footprints on the freshly-vacuumed carpet look likely this Christmas, as dreams of a white wonderland turn soggy.
Rain sweeping up the country has brought a new stream of flood warnings on the heels of over-optimism about snow on Christmas Day, which melted as transatlantic mild fronts sent last week's chilly weather packing.
The second most serious type of weather warning – amber for "be prepared" – has been issued for parts of Cornwall and Devon as heavy rain tracks across and up towards the Midlands, where the next level – yellow for "be alert" – is in place and extending up to Yorkshire by Thursday. Fresh warnings are in place for the weekend when a second band of very wet weather moves in over Land's End and follows the same north-easterly course in the countdown to Christmas. The Meteorological Office forecast for the first holiday week warns: "Very unsettled and windy, with occasionally heavy rain pushing north-eastwards."
"Further locally heavy rain is likely from midweek, separated by drier but showery interludes, with the best drier weather likely to be in the east. Strong to gale-force winds are also likely in places, but especially in the north-west. Temperatures will be mostly near or perhaps a little above normal, although patchy overnight frost remains likely, a pattern that should continue in the runup to the new year, with similarly unsettled conditions likely to prevail."
Reindeer weather may come to hilly areas, however, with rainfall on Christmas Eve possibly turning into snow on high ground and the clouds clearing on Christmas Day to give dry and bright conditions. These could persist on Boxing Day, giving seasonal conditions to the traditional, if no longer so lethal, principal hunting day of the year.
The Weather Channel predicts rainfall of between 20 and 40mm during the 36 hours ending at midnight on Thursday, but sweetens the pill with forecasts of temperatures as mild as 13C in the Midlands and southern England by Sunday afternoon. The Environment Agency has 37 flood alerts in place and four warnings, overwhelmingly in the south-west which has three warnings on the Somerset Levels and 24 alerts. The only other warning is on the river Nene at Whittlesey Wash near Peterborough, while the Midlands has five alerts, largely in Shropshire, and the south-east seven, including traditionally vulnerable valleys along the Thames and Cherwell in Oxfordshire.
Forecaster John Lee of Meteogroup said: "We have a succession of Atlantic systems coming to the UK. Does that mean seven days of rain? No, but it is going to be mild and unsettled until Christmas. It is not uncommon for this time of year, so I think most people should expect a few showers."
Gamblers have shifted with the weather, with the shortest odds bookies can remember on rainfall on Christmas Day – 1-7 in London, 1-8 in Glasgow and 1-10 in Manchester, the northern capital of rain. Aberdeen retains the shortest odds on snow at 3-1, with London at 5-1 and Cardiff 6-1. Simon Clare of Coral said: "Bets have been pouring in for a wet Christmas all day but we have hardly taken a penny on a white one. If the odds are to be believed then it will be umbrellas and not sledges that will be needed on Christmas Day."
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